Are China’s Greenhouse Gas Emissions Rising?

After decades in the environmental wilderness, it had appeared that the Chinese government were finally beginning to make inroads into the country’s terrible pollution problems. The implementation of its 12th five-year plan, complete with an array of new equipment and strategies, looked to be turning over a new leaf in Chinese energy production methods and environmental consciousness.

However, a new study from the Centre for International Climate and Environmental Research (CICERO) in Norway has suggested that the improvement in the country’s emissions might not be quite as considerable as previously anticipated. Indeed, the study even raises the idea that Chinese emissions increased in 2014, not decreased.

Why the Confusion?

Last year, the International Energy Agency (IEA) released a report which claimed that both coal use and electricity consumption in the Asian superpower were decreasing. These factors, the report stated, were responsible for an estimated downturn in carbon dioxide emissions of 1.5% in 2014. This fall contributed to a global decrease of 0.2% carbon emissions in the same year.

However, the new research has indicated that such calculations are misleading. “We estimate that China’s carbon dioxide emissions in 2014 actually increased by approximately 0.5 percent,” explained Robbie Andrew, co-author on the report.

The confusion arises from a discrepancy in terminology used by the Chinese government and concerns over the reliability of their own reported figures.

Weight vs Density

The projected estimates from the IEA are largely based upon statistics supplied by the Chinese government, which indicate that coal consumption fell by 2.9% in 2014 and a further 3.5% in 2015. These declines were seen as part of an ongoing effort to address the country’s terrible air quality problems (especially in urban areas) and transition to cleaner forms of fuel.

However, the percentages involved pertain to the amount of coal consumed by weight. While the nation might have burned a smaller amount of coal in terms of tonnage, it has been burning more energy-dense coal – which releases greater amounts of CO2. As such, the actual consumption of energy from coal-burning methods only decreased by 0.7%, and led to an increase in emissions of 0.5%.

These revelations cast doubt on the supposition that China's carbon emissions have peaked, and furthermore call into question the veracity of the government’s statements.

Chinese Unreliability

The Chinese government are renowned for revising their statistics as the years pass, which has a knock-on effect on how accurately scientists are able to judge their progress.

“The broader context is scepticism of China's reported coal consumption and CO₂ emissions,” explained Rob Jackson, a professor at Stanford University. “They've tended to revise their estimates upwards retroactively.”

Coupled with worrying actions like China's decision to censor a pollution documentary, the study’s findings bring Chinese compliance with the COP21 climate talks into question. However, despite the possible slight increase in 2014 emissions, it appears everyone is in agreement that the nation is certainly making moves away from the mega-polluting era of the 2000s.

“The most important part of the new paper is the authors’ confirmation that fundamental changes are underway in China's coal use. That's good news for everyone, and I agree with them,” concluded Professor Jackson.