Climate change deaths to triple by 2050

Climate change is likely to vastly increase the number of deaths in the UK that are caused by extreme heat. It is expected that by the middle of this century, the rise in temperature due to global warming and the increase in the number of elderly people within the population of England and Wales will result in over 7,000 deaths a year.

Experts have projected that by 2050 the number of deaths within England and Wales due to intense heat will increase by 257 per cent. As population numbers surge and the effects of climate change become more apparent, death rates are expected to surge. 

Researchers from the London School of Hygiene and Tropical Medicine and the government's Public Health England analysed weather pattern data from between 1993 and 2003 alongside death rates for those years, in order to characterise the relationship between the number of deaths that occur and temperature. The data was arranged by region and by age.

These characterisations were then applied to estimates for both local climate changes and population increases. This allowed the researchers to project the number of deaths that would occur during both during hot and cold weather during the 2020s, 2050s and 2080s. These projections showed that it was the elderly that were most at risk, although overall death rates would also increase.

It is expected that the number of hot days experienced within England and Wales will triple by the mid 2080s. Researchers also predict that the number of cold days experienced by this time will decrease, although not as quickly as hot days will increase. Predictions suggest that the number of cold-related deaths will fall by two per cent on current figures of around 41,000 in England and Wales, however; the number of deaths will still be significant.

In terms of the regions that are likely to be most affected, the Midlands and London are predicted to be the most susceptible to higher temperatures, while southern and eastern England and north Wales are likely to be more affected by cold.

The researchers suggest that more sustainable options for heating and cooling technologies will need to be developed in a bid to reduce emissions and risk of death from temperature changes.