Keystone XL pipeline 'could create four times the emissions than originally thought'

The highly controversial Keystone XL pipeline could be around four times worse for the environment than previously thought. New analysis has found that the proposed pipeline could have much larger impacts on climate change than past estimates.

A new study, performed by researchers at the Stockholm Environment Institute and published in the journal Nature Climate Change, has found that US State Department findings are not correct. The researchers suggest that the previous estimations on how large an impact the oilsands pipeline will have on climate change fail to take into account a large source of damaging emissions.

Peter Erickson, co-author of the study, said: "It didn't appear that they looked at the market implications. If the Keystone pipeline were to enable a greater rate of extraction of the oilsands, would that not increase global fuel supplies, which might then decrease prices and therefore allow a little bit more global consumption?" 

The researchers used figures from international agencies and previous research, which looked at how differences in oil consumption can be affected by oil prices. The figures revealed that every barrel of increased oilsands production when the oil is at a lower price, as a result of the Keystone XL pipeline, will increase global fuel production by over half a barrel. 

The proposed pipeline's daily capacity is around 820,000 barrels, which means the yearly carbon impact of the pipeline could be around 110 million tonnes. Original State Department estimates suggested that the impact would only be 27 million tonnes.

Researchers on the study do say that they cannot accurately state whether the Keystone XL pipeline would be responsible for the expansion of oilsands operations or if the growth will happen anyway, resulting in an increased carbon impact. 

Officials in the oil and gas sector have said that the relationship between production and pipelines has been simplified within the study to a great degree. According to Terry Abel, director of oilsands for the Canadian Association of Petroleum Producers, better transportation and higher output affect each other.